With increase of power grid voltage (e.g. 100 KV in China), grid safety is playing an increasingly important role for the society safety. Extreme weather conditions may affect the safety of grid and transmission lines, and even bring disasters. Grid device failures related to lightning may not only bring great economic losses, but may also be life-threatening. Therefore, lightning forecast technology is in high demand.
Currently there are following several lightning forecast methods:
One is a statistic method. The method uses historical meteorological data and Spark Discharge of the Air (SDA) data to build and train a linear model, and then makes forecast based on the model and using forecast variables from a meteorology organization. The disadvantage of this technology is that it is not accurate enough and cannot forecast the SDA intensity, and the linear model cannot forecast well.
Another method is to forecast SDA using radar and based on experience. The method assumes that radar reflectivity greater than 35 db under −15, for example, has a high probability to produce SDA. The method actually can only indicate the probability of producing SDA under the current weather condition, and cannot forecast the probability of producing SDA in a future time.
Still another method is weather model. The method uses a high-resolution weather model to forecast a Targeted Weather of SDA Carrier (TWLC), and then calculates a SDA index based on convective parameters. The drawback of this method is that there is a great error in forecasting the TWLC using the weather model.
Apparently, a more effective lightning forecast method is needed in the art.